Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.333128 0.378315 0.427362 0.484556 0.549429 0.620738 0.705089
2025-09-28 0.261302 0.319989 0.388581 0.474684 0.579929 0.704463 0.863154
2025-10-05 0.221074 0.289702 0.375426 0.490405 0.640723 0.830781 1.089749
2025-10-12 0.183624 0.256146 0.352457 0.489788 0.680829 0.937621 1.309877
2025-10-19 0.156466 0.231296 0.336488 0.495251 0.729220 1.062110 1.573290
2025-10-26 0.136940 0.213667 0.327388 0.508358 0.789782 1.211977 1.896076
2025-11-02 0.114170 0.187343 0.301281 0.491782 0.803266 1.294241 2.130726
2025-11-09 0.094266 0.162150 0.272852 0.466714 0.798942 1.347444 2.326961
2025-11-16 0.080935 0.145538 0.255568 0.456839 0.817372 1.439148 2.599868
2025-11-23 0.069721 0.130733 0.238999 0.445365 0.830797 1.523464 2.871857
2025-11-30 0.063437 0.123773 0.235089 0.455726 0.884494 1.685780 3.308994
2025-12-07 0.054620 0.110662 0.217939 0.438597 0.883850 1.747386 3.564067
2025-12-14 0.048075 0.101215 0.206838 0.432469 0.905577 1.858538 3.942223
2025-12-21 0.042182 0.092172 0.195213 0.423538 0.920424 1.958636 4.315179
2025-12-28 0.039186 0.088751 0.194567 0.437472 0.985396 2.171467 4.962586
2026-01-04 0.035327 0.082825 0.187719 0.436858 1.018638 2.321716 5.496937
2026-01-11 0.032351 0.078430 0.183573 0.441684 1.064949 2.507831 6.144414
2026-01-18 0.030169 0.075548 0.182431 0.453337 1.129085 2.744355 6.950858
2026-01-25 0.026608 0.068743 0.171067 0.438537 1.126933 2.824025 7.385395
2026-02-01 0.023090 0.061486 0.157526 0.416174 1.102352 2.845291 7.675381
2026-02-08 0.020717 0.056813 0.149734 0.407361 1.111294 2.952119 8.207726
2026-02-15 0.018559 0.052369 0.141871 0.397126 1.114858 3.045585 8.719829
2026-02-22 0.017484 0.050731 0.141181 0.406356 1.173184 3.293801 9.705226